Strong Jobs Data Suggests Fed Can Stay Patient on Inflation

Thanks for joining us. Here are five key takeaways from the March US employment report, released Friday:

  • Nonfarm payrolls advanced 303,000 last month following a combined 22,000 upward revision to job gains in the prior two months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed. The rise exceeded all expectations in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. But Black unemployment rose to 6.4% from 5.6%.
  • Job growth was led by faster hiring in health care, leisure and hospitality, and construction, while a measure of the breadth of job gains increased. Manufacturing employment was unchanged in March after a downward revision to a loss of 10,000 jobs in February.
  • Average hourly earnings were as expected, rising 0.3% from February and 4.1% from a year ago, the slowest annual pace since mid-2021. The participation rate rose to 62.7%, the first advance since November, while the rate for workers age 25-54 ticked down to 83.4%
  • Treasuries sank on the news, sending yields higher. Traders shifted the full pricing for a Fed rate cut to September from July. Stocks retained their gains, with S&P 500 futures up almost 0.3% ahead of the open on Wall Street. The dollar climbed.

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