Citi economists call global recession a present danger

Citigroup Inc. economists have labeled a global recession a “clear and
present danger,” while repeating they estimate a 50 percent
probability of such a slump.

In a report to clients, economists led by Nathan Sheets said they now
expect the world economy to grow 2.9 percent this year and 2.6 percent
in 2023, slightly lower than previously.

That means global growth will be below trend with the US and euro area
expected to slip into mild recessions over the next 12 to 18 months.

“On balance, our forecast sees the global economy skating through and
avoiding a synchronized downturn,” the economists said. “The risks to
our forecast look skewed heavily to the downside. As such, we also
reaffirm our 50 percent recession call articulated.”

“Global recession is, indisputably, a clear and present danger,” they said.

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